UK Government North Sea Fiscal Receipts
Source: DECC, UK Office for Budget Responsibility, “Fiscal Sustainability Report 2014”, Prienga (author’s) estimates
This is the scenario which I would recommend to a voter in Scotland as most likely. The North Sea will continue to decline at an elevated, but not draconian, pace. Oil prices will increase. But as seen in the last decade, cost increases will outpace revenue increases, for the reason that consumers’ willingness to pay more for oil, beyond the carrying capacity value of $115 / barrel, will be limited to GDP growth and efficiency gains. That is, the pace at which North Sea geology is deteriorating is likely to remain greater than the growth rate of global purchasing power. As a result, North Sea economics will deteriorate. In the worst case, fiscal receipts all but dry up by 2020; in the better case, they dwindle to insignificance by 2025.
The oil business in Scotland is more than just the UK North Sea fiscal receipts. It is, even more importantly, the oil field services business, centered around Aberdeen. How will Aberdeen fare in the coming years?
Aberdeen supplies more than just the UK offshore oil sector. It also delivers the highest quality and most sophisticated oil technologies and services around the globe.
About half of supply chain sales in Aberdeen are to the UK North Sea, and another 10% or so are to Norway. These will decline in line with oil production in these two regions, although revenues to an extent will be supported by North Sea decommissioning and on-going maintenance activities. Still, this side of the business will see declines on average.
Non-Norwegian exports constitute the other half of the market, and this portion should remain in somewhat better shape. The principal export regions are Europe, Africa and the Middle East. UK firms would expect to win work in deepwater Mediterranean gas fields off the coasts of Israel or Cyprus, for example. In Russia, UK firms might provide material support to Arctic projects. In Africa, Angola is the key market, with as yet unknown pre-salt potential there. Nigeria could be a strong market if politics become more tractable there, and LNG in Mozambique is likely to bring work to Aberdeen. In the Middle East, the Red Sea is the new frontier. Its deepwater potential is not yet well understood, but should that region develop, UK firms would be first in line and Aberdeen would profit.
Having said that, deepwater has not really lived up to its potential. Angola’s output has hardly budged; Nigeria’s offshore production has declined. The US Gulf of Mexico is seeing production gains, but Brazil is likely to be adversely affected by the re-election of Dilma Rousseff as President of Brazil. Ukraine has compromised Russia's Arctic offshore development. All of these have a greater or lesser negative effect on the UK oil field services supply chain.How to drill into brick? What is a flexible spending account? Tips studying "when i was in law school" "block off time"? How many police officers killed in 2020 due to riots? What does zion mean? What time does dd's close? What does 222 mean in angel numbers? What does the er do? What does white gums mean? What does bdo stand for? How to detox your body? What is 12? What is the meaning of sepsis? How would the meaning of the excerpt change if mutterings was replaced with conversations? What does taking a break in a relationship mean? How to get rid of bunions? il-4 and il-5 are produced by which sub set of t-helper effector cells. quizlet What causes the tips of your finger to turn white and cold? what is google chrom helper task What is the meaning of the song the sound of silence? How to deal with intrusive thoughts? how much does therapist helper cost? What are vertices in shapes? How to find a lost iphone that is turned off? how does ups driver helper bonus work portland What is the meaning of a black butterfly? how to make a kitchen helper stool What is a pc? What is middle age? What does flying in a dream mean spiritually? What does part of speech mean? What does cl mean? family of origin helper personality style how formed what you call a helper to the police How many carbs in a serving of beef tips with gravy? how to fix hamburger helper How to find routing number on check? What is gruyere cheese? What are consumer goods? where does wii u usb helper unpack my games to What is the meaning of pratyush? How to do tricks in mx all out? What does bees knees mean? What is the meaning of rosca? How old do you have to book a hotel? How to charge your crystals? how to remove my inbox helper from windows 10 Tricks to stop bad thoughts when mentally impaired? What does it mean when you see a blue bird? What is the term turtle as used in magic tricks? What is the meaning of the longest word? What percentage of tips does a busser make in restaurants? How to make chocolate chip cookies? How to throw a bowling ball? Why is my peace lily leaf tips turning brown? What is firestick tricks? How many tips christmas tree? Tips for luggage when city hopping? How long does fashion nova take to ship? What is the meaning of feckless? What are anti federalists? What does it mean to have hsv antibodies? How to save a video from twitter? How easy is it to get pregnant? What does mean in a sentence? What is controlled unclassified information cui? What does fling mean? What happens when you go bancrupt in australia tips and tricks? What is the meaning of topaz? What level is fly guys amazing tricks? What are good tricks on clash of clans? What is the average daily tips for a blackjack dealer.in az? How to treat sleep apnea? What is the meaning of upbeat? How to log out of amazon app? What is ashley madison? What does cost basis mean? What is the meaning of deacon? where to get ultimate hamburger helper What is amazons subliminal logo meaning? What is the meaning of karma? How to track changes in google docs? How to treat tendonitis? What does acos mean? What does an oximeter measure? What does 1 million look like? What does tpc mean in golf? What does 444 mean in manifestation? What does 1400 mean? What does it mean when a pitcher tips his pitches? How to talk? Songs people use when doing scooter tricks? What does su mean in text? What time does o reilly's close? What is indirect sunlight? What is meaning of taliban? What is squirting? How to dye clothes? How to impress people with tricks? How to evolve machoke? How 'ghetto' lost its meaning commonlit answers? who fulfills fulfills the proppian function of helper quizlet What are assets and liabilities? How to get a dog to stop biting? What are thermometers used for? Bonds-which poster meaning? What is the meaning of the word cognitive? how much is it per hour for helper get paid How to become a park ranger? What meaning of gst? How to do tricks in air dribbles rocket league? How to get rid of wrinkles? Tips on how to prove defense? Show where guy does magic tricks and sells items to people? How to make a white russian? Tips on how to apply makeup site:youtube.com? aids causes a decrease in which to helper cells What does l citrulline do? What is the meaning of win? Where do steak tips come from? How to do bicycle tricks gta v? brown dust how to change helper kwang soo as yoo ams bond helper what episode What does bay leaf do? How to update drivers on pc? What are the rules of subtracting integers? What cheeses are in mexican blend? What does it mean when you dream about a dog? What is an antonym? What does it mean to be an american? What does daddy issues mean? How to cook steak in oven? How to get free pets in adopt me? How to upload? What does proportional relationship mean? What does oracle mean? How to talk to anyone: 92 little tricks for your social life pdf? Tips for wives whose husbands travel? What does gringa mean? What is the meaning of the female name jean? How to get voice back? What does surge mean? What does nada mean in spanish? What does it mean to annex a country? Trampoline tricks how to do a backflip? How to change language on disney plus? What does the angel number 1111 mean? Where or when lyrics complete oh the tricks your mind can play? How to do tricks in echo arena? How to share an instagram story to my story? What is the meaning of high definition? How to mold a mouthguard? what does the song mother's little helper mean What is vegan? What is the meaning of name monica? What does stay woke mean? how to package vectors into virions helper virus free What are carbohydrates made of? What is the meaning of justice is blind? How to print multiple pictures on one page? How to get his interest back tips? What does gm mean in text? How to shave? How to satisfy a woman in bed in hindi with images techniques girl man fully tips language? What does blood mean in a dream? What does bool mean? What moral turpitude meaning? What is tri tip? What does she/her/hers mean in a signature? when will panda helper be fixed What are tablets used for? What is sodium hydroxide? What does uncured hot dogs mean? How to make a pop up card? What are the symptoms of hepatitis? How to cook bacon in the oven without a rack? how to use rusume helper for free What does red tape mean? How many calories in beef tips? How to choose exhaust tips? What does milfs mean? How to tile a floor? Who sings the new tricks theme tune? How to open rar files on windows 10? What does the name payton mean? What does shrimp eat? How to play racquetball? Tips for eating healthy when eating out choose my plate? What does ofwgkta mean? What does factor mean in math? Tips on how to pose your boudoir model? What is the meaning of ezra? How long to i keep my tips? Owners and managers who have ability to hire and fire cannot take tips? What does de novo mean? What does curiosity killed the cat mean? Who does tricks? What does going viral mean? What is a sable? What is zendaya's real name? What does steep mean? How to sell a house by owner? how much to pay domestic helper in hong kong if i pay a helper where do i enter that in taxes What are the missing books of the bible? What does 7 mean? What does a roach nest look like? How to relieve uti pain fast? Kellyanne conway just threatened a guy who tricks her into hilarious selfie video? What does vc mean? How to deposit a cashier's check? How to register a car in texas? How to unlock excel sheet? How to remove warts? How to watch the super bowl? How to qualify for boston marathon? How to write a song tips? How to screenshot iphone 11? How to add subtitles to a video? How to talk to anyone: 92 little tricks audio book torrent? What does discordant mean? What does monochrome mean? What are hot dogs made of? Which of the following words meaning a small bone in the middle ear is spelled correctly? How to add tips and tricks in roblox? Reddit tips tricks and hacks how to make money daily online? What does a pregnant belly feel like? What motor bikes are used for tricks? How to clean tips of hearing aids? What does am mean? What are brats made of? 5. what is the lcc number for the title: is our memory playing tricks? the case of déjà vu? What does asystole mean? What does fob stand for? How to report tips income non employee? Tips for learning how to fingerpick? What cards are best to use for majic tricks? How to control your husband tips? How to clean keurig coffee maker? using where in databse helper What does ms stand for in medical terms? What does orange on a mood ring mean? What does habitually mean? What is the meaning of getting? What key activates tricks on the dawning sparrow? How to fix hemorrhoid? What is the meaning of a raven tattoo? How to reset wifi router? How to get rid of tongue sores? snapchat game santas helper how to What does a contested divorce mean? what cripples the immune system by interfering with the activity of helper t cells What is the meaning of blighted ovum? What does nitrates in urine mean? What does a tick look like in a dog? hypixel how to be a helper How to increase oxytocin? How to turn off tips android? Lee michaels do you know what i mean? What are cyclical stocks? Tips on how to do a good interview? How to grind weed without a grinder? What does facs stand for? How old do you need to be to rent a car? What are the nationalities? What does insoluble mean? which aisle do i find hamburger helper What does red and white make?